Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x628e…b3de other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$622 (+4%) realized +$622 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate91%213W / 22L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$311
14 days+$473
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$102
other 45% +$481
world 2% +$11
tech 1% +$22
crypto 0% −$15
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 100% 24% -3.3%
≤30d 150 +3.8% -6.1% 91% 12% -5.6%
≤90d 214 +1.3% -8.4% 91% 11% -5.6%
all 235 +1.6% -8.1% 91% 11% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -5.7%
10% -16.9% 8% -14.7%
15% -24.9% 6% -22.9%
20% -32.3% 5% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses213 / 22
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage129d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $186 +$3 +2%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $184 +$5 +3%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $91 $0 +0%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $186 +$4 +2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $186 +$4 +2%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $188 +$2 +1%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 27 $399 $0 +0%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $190 +$10 +5%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $188 +$2 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $189 $0 +0%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $187 +$2 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 25 $159 +$2 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $182 +$7 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $17 $0 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $291 +$9 +3%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $179 +$11 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $171 +$9 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $175 +$5 +3%
Will anyone say "Morty" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $71 +$25 +36%
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $37 +$44 +120%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $87 +$83 +95%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $69 +$13 +20%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E5 S9 Jun 22 $16 +$4 +26%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $30 +$10 +33%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $35 +$13 +38%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 22 $27 +$30 +110%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $194 +$6 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $97 +$2 +2%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $296 +$4 +1%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 17 $133 +$2 +1%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $190 1h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $186 1h
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $181 1h
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $249 2h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 3h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 97¢ $184 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $91 10h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $100 10h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Egypt 99¢ $99 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $91 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Uruguay 100¢ $33 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Uruguay 100¢ $157 13h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $190 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 98¢ $186 13h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $41 13h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8 13h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $137 13h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 14h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 14h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $400 14h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $181 14h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $399 14h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $188 14h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $100 25h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $98 26h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) SELL Australia 100¢ $100 35h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 35h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 99¢ $99 35h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $85 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 626 history records