Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x628e…9661 other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$118 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$484
14 days+$535
30 days+$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$355
sports 23% +$162
crypto 8% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 47% +20.7%
≤30d 34 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
≤90d 34 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
all 34 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 50% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 50% +21.2%
10% -7.3% 50% +9.6%
15% -16.2% 50% -1.0%
20% -24.4% 47% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$25 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 52
History coverage11d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U Jun 25 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $23 +$38 +170%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $222 +$79 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$121 +236%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $92 −$25 -27%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $101 +$87 +86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $75 −$73 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$46 +78%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $57 +$89 +156%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$81 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 −$39 -44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$49 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $104 +$65 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$34 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$37 +291%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $112 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 71¢ $112 6m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $117 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 35¢ $38 18h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 51¢ $56 19h
Germany leading at halftime? AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at ha BUY 15¢ $16 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL 53¢ $61 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U BUY 42¢ $10 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw a BUY 17¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 19¢ $23 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $66 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 44h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $301 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.91 · official $280.91 · 87 history records