Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x628d…e642 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$982 (-10%) realized −$979 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$962
other 23% −$65
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 52% -19.0%
≤30d 23 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 52% -19.0%
≤90d 23 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 52% -19.0%
all 23 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 52% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 52% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 43% -26.8%
15% -20.8% 30% -33.8%
20% -28.5% 17% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$302 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$979
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 28 $132 +$48 +36%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $459 −$97 -21%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $60 +$7 +12%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $703 −$532 -76%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 28 $79 −$79 -99%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $646 −$644 -100%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $503 +$148 +29%
Valorant: QoR vs YFT Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 28 $1,409 −$914 -65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 27 $184 −$180 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $202 +$103 +51%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $88 +$415 +473%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $403 +$106 +26%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 27 $303 +$148 +49%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $958 +$347 +36%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $161 +$90 +56%
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $906 +$112 +12%
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $181 −$16 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $702 +$37 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,041 +$314 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 6m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 99¢ $179 7m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $16 7m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 72¢ $132 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 79¢ $132 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 84¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 86¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 86¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 20¢ $36 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 76¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 23¢ $60 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $500 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $43 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $60 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 45¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 46¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $34 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Acend 45¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.00 · official $148.00 (match) · 89 history records