Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x628b…bd3e other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+21%) realized +$126 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$27
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$4
sports 5% +$15
crypto 2% +$8
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.3% +2.6% 69% 69% -3.4%
≤30d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 46% -4.9%
≤90d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 46% -4.9%
all 28 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 46% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -4.9%
10% -22.4% 43% -14.0%
15% -29.9% 43% -22.3%
20% -36.8% 39% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $70 $55 −$15 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $82 +$13 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$36 +53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 +$31 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$8 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +68%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$19 +145%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +216%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$15 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $82 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $57 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $7 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.07 · official $55.07 (match) · 47 history records