Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x628a…6d8f
sports · 193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$245 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$491 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$288
Realized−$491
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)169 / 193
History coverage93d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 25 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$19
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ $27 $47 +$20 (+72%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 56¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 87¢ 56¢ $27 $17 −$9 (-35%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 87¢ 83¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 45¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+122%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 58¢ 97¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 61¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 85¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 97¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $275 +$3 +1%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 +$62 +77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$48 -87%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $6 +$2 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$44 +81%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +42%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $9 −$6 -69%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Third term" in March? Apr 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japane Apr 05 $50 +$10 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $30 −$19 -62%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 02 $25 −$1 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 02 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30? Apr 01 $5 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 01 $30 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $86 +$1 +1%
BitBoy convicted? Mar 31 $23 −$15 -66%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$33
other 36% −$364
world 6% −$46
politics 4% −$16
tech 0% −$25
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 17m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 17m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $263 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 98¢ $23 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $261 3h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $2 5h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $4 5h
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 53¢ $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 55¢ $13 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $18 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 13h
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY No 99¢ $1 13h
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 38 -20.8% -28.4% 45% 26% -10.3%
≤90d 107 -19.8% -27.5% 38% 15% -16.2%
all 169 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 21% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 21% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 15% -25.0%
15% -36.9% 11% -32.3%
20% -43.1% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.63 · official $287.14 (match) · 3500 history records