Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6287…9eb1 crypto 1819 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%1461W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -0.8% -10.2% 80% 80% -9.0%
≤30d 836 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 82% -9.9%
≤90d 1821 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 80% -12.6%
all 1821 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 80% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 80% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -21.0%
15% -26.5% 6% -28.6%
20% -33.7% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1461 / 360
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1821 / 1819
History coverage67d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3630%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -688%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $4.04 (match) · 3500 history records