Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6287…4c79 crypto 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$390 (-7%) realized −$390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%149W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$276
14 days+$252
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$407
sports 8% −$12
other 6% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 53% +11.5%
≤30d 78 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 49% +4.2%
≤90d 324 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 45% -17.3%
all 324 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 45% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 45% -17.3%
10% -20.0% 45% -25.2%
15% -27.7% 44% -32.4%
20% -34.8% 41% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses149 / 175
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)324 / 325
History coverage86d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 324 Trades
no open positions (139 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$23 +222%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$14 +89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $35 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$69 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$20 +94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$28 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $116 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $59 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 560 history records