trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 10¢ | $4 | $6 | +$2 (+56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $34 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Jan 31 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Dec 30 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 18 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 18 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? | Sep 17 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 17 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? | Sep 16 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Sep 16 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | Sep 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 16 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Sep 15 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 15 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 15 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Oregon vs. Northwestern | Sep 15 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? | Sep 13 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12? | Sep 09 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? | Sep 08 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Sep 08 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Sep 02 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| all | 22 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 32% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.4% |