Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6286…f59c world 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,666 (+9%) realized +$11,217 · open −$1,551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%61W / 146L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,181
7 days−$3,878
14 days−$3,191
30 days−$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$13,460
other 1% −$179
finance 1% −$441
sports 0% −$52
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -42.0% -47.5% 13% 11% -32.5%
≤30d 132 -28.2% -35.0% 25% 18% -9.1%
≤90d 160 -14.1% -22.3% 26% 19% -1.0%
all 207 +10.3% -0.2% 29% 22% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 22% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 17% -0.7%
15% -18.5% 14% -10.3%
20% -26.4% 12% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$75 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,595
Realized+$11,217
Unrealized−$1,551
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses61 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)207 / 136
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$788
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,007 $1,064 +$56 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $769 $826 +$57 (+7%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $731 $215 −$516 (-71%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $200 $115 −$85 (-42%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $173 $48 −$125 (-72%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $300 $26 −$274 (-91%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-46%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $37 $21 −$16 (-42%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $270 $16 −$254 (-94%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? Yes 35¢ 5¢ $112 $15 −$96 (-86%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $33 $13 −$19 (-59%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+86%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $60 $12 −$49 (-81%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $146 $9 −$137 (-94%)
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $76 $6 −$70 (-91%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$11 (-83%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by December 31? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 23 $333 −$291 -87%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $9 −$6 -67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 23 $256 −$194 -76%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $1 +$6 +495%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $107 −$54 -50%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $26 −$15 -59%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jun 23 $172 −$172 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $24 +$124 +513%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 23 $7 −$9 -120%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Jun 23 $451 −$785 -174%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Indonesia join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayora Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Jun 23 $130 −$1,071 -824%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jun 23 $75 −$167 -221%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? Jun 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $6 +$22 +343%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jun 23 $145 −$386 -266%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Jun 23 $9 −$10 -111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2h
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 1¢ $0 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 13h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $22 19h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 33h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,594.97 · official $2,595.18 (match) · 3500 history records