Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x6285…4c3c crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$325 (+1%) realized +$324 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%47W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$594per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$181
economics 11% −$4
other 11% +$39
finance 5% +$21
tech 5% +$59
world 3% +$7
politics 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 48 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,035) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$42 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.69 per $1 lost it wins $8.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized+$324
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses47 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage246d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $593 $595 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 15 $198 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $784 +$7 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $576 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? May 18 $192 +$7 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $768 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $763 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 16 $191 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 31 $761 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 29 $748 +$14 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 15 $727 +$20 +3%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$65 in February? Mar 02 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Mar 02 $610 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 25 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 25 $524 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Feb 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 14 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $520 +$4 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $1,413 +$7 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Jan 30 $715 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January? Jan 30 $866 +$26 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $190 +$21 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 28 $1,472 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 22 $1,412 +$59 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $1,402 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $1,360 +$42 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $1,211 +$53 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 29 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $1,172 +$39 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 November 3-9? Nov 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,100 November 3-9? Nov 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $69 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $178 −$42 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,035 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on November 3? Nov 04 $1,122 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 1? Oct 31 $583 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 31 $1,197 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $140 on October 29? Oct 30 $1,196 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 28? Oct 28 $685 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $2.10 on October 28? Oct 28 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on October 28? Oct 28 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on October 28? Oct 27 $685 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 28? Oct 27 $923 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18? Oct 18 $121 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $199 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $594 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $396 12d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $198 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $197 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $784 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $584 32d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $199 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $576 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $578 54d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $150 62d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $19 62d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 62d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 62d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $46 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $118 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $4 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $768 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $573 64d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $195 65d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $191 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $191 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $763 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $763 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $761 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $82 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $6 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.71 · official $793.71 (match) · 127 history records