Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6282…35d0 crypto 1461 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%1319W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$61
14 days−$2
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% +$140
crypto 19% −$61
other 6% −$79
sports 4% −$61
world 2% +$2
politics 1% +$18
tech 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 11% -11.7%
≤30d 309 +0.5% -9.1% 85% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 1084 -0.4% -9.9% 89% 3% -9.6%
all 1454 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 4% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1319 / 135
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1454 / 1461
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 39¢ 50¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $70 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $30 −$6 -21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $40 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $35 9h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? SELL No 91¢ $15 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $32 19h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $16 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $33 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 3¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $20 34h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 98¢ $21 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 78¢ $24 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 94¢ $30 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.77 · official $274.77 (match) · 3500 history records