Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6282…aaab
weather · 421 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$316 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$190 · open −$127
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,032
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses222 / 127
Open positions72
Markets (closed)349 / 421
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 72 History 349 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$114
14 days−$190
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 26¢ 54¢ $17 $35 +$18 (+106%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? No 67¢ 83¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 71¢ 88¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 72¢ 82¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 84¢ 93¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 84¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 87¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 88¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 87¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 87¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? No 76¢ 80¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 76¢ 79¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 83¢ 85¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 88¢ 89¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$43 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$45 +361%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $24 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $24 6m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $27 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $23 41m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $22 43m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $26 58m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $23 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +11.7% +1.1% 84% 74% -1.4%
≤30d 349 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 54% -12.6%
≤90d 349 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 54% -12.6%
all 349 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 54% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 19% -20.9%
15% -27.6% 11% -28.6%
20% -34.7% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.87 · official $1,031.88 (match) · 796 history records