Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6281…7ad4 crypto 1953 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%1338W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$44
14 days−$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$61
other 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 59% -23.1%
≤30d 1467 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 64% -8.7%
≤90d 1910 -0.4% -9.9% 70% 66% -10.0%
all 1910 -0.4% -9.9% 70% 66% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 66% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 49% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 27% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 15% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1338 / 572
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1910 / 1953
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1910 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.72 (match) · 3500 history records