Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

62 0x6281…cb9c sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$90 (+18%) realized +$160 · open −$70

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+68.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+86.2%	+68.4%	50%	50%	+23.7%
≤30d	4	+86.2%	+68.4%	50%	50%	+23.7%
≤90d	4	+86.2%	+68.4%	50%	50%	+23.7%
all	4	+86.2%	+68.4%	50%	50%	+23.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+68.4%	50%	+23.7%
10%	+52.3%	50%	+11.8%
15%	+37.6%	50%	+1.0%
20%	+24.1%	50%	-8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +86% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$118 vs −$74 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$160

Unrealized−$70

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5	Over	12¢	4¢	$100	$30	−$70 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$51	+$65	+129%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$41	+$170	+416%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$99	−$98	-98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	12¢	$103	1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-	BUY	21¢	$50	26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 AND Netherlands to score first vs. Tu	BUY	15¢	$100	26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$211	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$99	32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	19¢	$41	32h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $30.00 (match) · 9 history records