Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6280…434a other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$423 (-7%) realized −$452 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$880
14 days−$920
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$715
crypto 22% −$19
sports 7% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.9% -18.5% 16% 12% -30.1%
≤30d 40 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 20% -16.3%
≤90d 40 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 20% -16.3%
all 40 -2.9% -12.2% 22% 20% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 20% -16.3%
10% -20.6% 15% -24.3%
15% -28.2% 15% -31.6%
20% -35.3% 12% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$51 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage16d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 50¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+254%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$54 -53%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $62 −$43 -70%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $12 +$13 +110%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $352 −$344 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$165 +162%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $807 +$105 +13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,267 +$69 +6%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -8%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $201 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $560 +$103 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $855 −$4 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 +$222 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 24h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 46h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 47h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 2d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $352 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.62 · official $48.62 (match) · 71 history records