Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x627f…595c sports 1083 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$507 (-1%) realized −$520 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate76%819W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$26
14 days+$34
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$371
crypto 36% −$163
other 11% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.0% -6.8% 64% 59% -6.2%
≤30d 139 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 60% -9.7%
≤90d 551 -2.8% -12.1% 63% 54% -12.1%
all 1081 -2.6% -11.9% 76% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 31% -11.2%
10% -20.3% 20% -19.7%
15% -28.0% 10% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses819 / 262
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1081 / 1083
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1081 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $53 $63 +$10 (+19%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 92¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $6 +$3 +45%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $7 +$2 +35%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $15 +$6 +39%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $19 +$7 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -84%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $55 −$1 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$11 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$8 -51%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$3 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $11 +$5 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $26 +$3 +10%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $6 −$1 -24%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $7 +$3 +38%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$6 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 80¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $13 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 78¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $45 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $25 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $24 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 33¢ $8 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 98¢ $9 24h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $8 25h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 89¢ $10 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $6 26h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 67¢ $6 26h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $7 27h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $21 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.77 · official $80.77 (match) · 3500 history records