Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x627e…f511 politics 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
politics 28% $0
other 13% $0
crypto 10% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 23% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage331d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $20 −$2 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Aug 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $6 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $37 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $42 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $47 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $9 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $15 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $24 13d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 301d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 308d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $8 308d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.76 · official $34.76 (match) · 110 history records