Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x627b…285b weather 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$865 (-3%) realized −$841 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%79W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,976now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$3,431
sports 41% +$574
other 15% −$263
crypto 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -35.1% -41.3% 29% 24% -14.6%
≤30d 285 -39.9% -45.6% 28% 23% -25.8%
≤90d 285 -39.9% -45.6% 28% 23% -25.8%
all 285 -39.9% -45.6% 28% 23% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 23% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 18% -32.9%
15% -55.6% 13% -39.4%
20% -59.9% 11% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$50 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,976
Realized−$841
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses79 / 206
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions15
Markets (closed)285 / 204
History coverage9d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 88¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 74¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $150 $92 −$58 (-38%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on June 15 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $1 −$18 -2885%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $41 8m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 10m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $49 12m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 13m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $192 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $890 15m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 40m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $196 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $301 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $81 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 67¢ $214 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $63 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $143 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $237 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $219 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 86¢ $204 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 30¢ $40 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $172 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $131 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,976.17 · official $2,006.18 · 648 history records