Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x627b…1e34 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-2%) realized −$24 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$13
world 21% −$23
other 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 1% +$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +67.4% +51.5% 100% 100% +51.5%
≤30d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% -14.9%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -10.9% 79% 50% -8.2%
all 22 -10.0% -18.6% 77% 32% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 32% -12.1%
10% -26.4% 23% -20.5%
15% -33.5% 18% -28.2%
20% -40.0% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$55 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage178d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $111 $108 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $79 +$54 +67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $111 +$40 +36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $112 −$111 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $94 +$47 +50%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $120 +$63 +52%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 13 $82 +$17 +20%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? May 04 $12 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 04 $18 +$3 +16%
Thunder vs. Suns May 04 $72 +$19 +26%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, May 04 $92 +$4 +4%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $112 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $79 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $111 17d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $112 24d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $94 32d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S BUY AM Gaming 62¢ $75 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $120 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 83¢ $82 53d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $47 60d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $72 63d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY No 96¢ $92 76d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $12 95d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $17 100d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $17 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 113d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 113d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $18 118d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $22 137d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 157d
Congress authorizes military force against Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 164d
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 170d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 170d
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition BUY Yes 100¢ $16 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.28 · official $108.28 (match) · 41 history records