Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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62 0x627a…cdc2 crypto 77 markets active 2d ago coverage 326d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 325d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39,460 (+5%) realized +$15,738 · open +$23,722
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%53W / 13L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$10,036per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$99,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 326d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$93,775
other 1% +$1,788
finance 1% +$392
economics 0% +$149
world 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 36% -24.1%
all 66 +65.4% +49.6% 80% 30% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.6% 30% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here +35.3% 15% -9.6%
15% +22.2% 15% -18.3%
20% +10.2% 8% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$6,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +128% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,439 vs −$297 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.77 per $1 lost it wins $19.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$99,043
Realized+$15,738
Unrealized+$23,722
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses53 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)66 / 77
History coverage326d ⚠
Avg bet$10,036
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 96¢ $17,160 $21,120 +$3,960 (+23%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 94¢ $12,351 $18,700 +$6,350 (+51%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 94¢ $12,537 $16,655 +$4,118 (+33%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 92¢ $8,049 $13,800 +$5,751 (+71%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $7,225 $8,485 +$1,260 (+17%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $6,940 $7,780 +$840 (+12%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $5,326 $5,854 +$528 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $2,130 $2,505 +$375 (+18%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $2,399 $2,466 +$67 (+3%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 78¢ $886 $1,110 +$223 (+25%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 95¢ $317 $568 +$251 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? Apr 04 $1,657 +$317 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 23 $4,120 +$69 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $217 +$14 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 20 $658 +$271 +41%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $3 +$1 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 20 $1,655 +$125 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Mar 18 $801 −$801 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August? Mar 18 $233 −$130 -56%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $771 −$52 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August? Mar 18 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 10 $475 −$18 -4%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026? Feb 25 $562 −$122 -22%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $360 +$76 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $5,481 +$168 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $5,739 +$25 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? Feb 01 $189 +$79 +42%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? Jan 31 $41 +$19 +46%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jan 29 $4,199 +$139 +3%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? Jan 29 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 27 $5,896 +$12 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Jan 14 $2,185 +$336 +15%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? Jan 06 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $148 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $5,756 +$106 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $18,726 +$118 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 01 $6,989 +$13 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $11,293 +$103 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $112,545 +$6,377 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $22,497 +$8,443 +38%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $42,569 +$7,288 +17%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $58,273 +$10,969 +19%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $80,677 +$757 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $13,511 +$52 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Dec 30 $989 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $1,494 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $183,070 +$34,160 +19%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 23 $106 −$55 -52%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 20 $6,223 +$204 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Dec 05 $320 −$320 -100%
Canada recession in 2025? Nov 28 $166 +$139 +84%
Will India invade Pakistan in 2025? Nov 25 $458 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Nov 19 $1,225 +$233 +19%
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by September 30? Nov 19 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 01 $2,657 −$121 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 28 $1,264 +$22 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Sep 28 $3,077 −$222 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 28 $1,128 +$169 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 28 $7,370 +$430 +6%
US recession in 2025? Sep 14 $890 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $739 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,660 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $188 9d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $16 61d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2 69d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $2 69d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $403 76d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $282 77d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 78d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $22 78d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 78d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 81d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $29 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $27 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $3 82d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $196 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $10 84d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $15 84d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1 84d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $3 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $741 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $5 84d
Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $9 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $172 84d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $166 84d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99,042.74 · official $99,042.74 (match) · 3500 history records