Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6279…b96b politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$3
other 30% −$1
sports 20% −$10
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 -50.0% -54.8% 50% 0% -9.7%
all 20 -4.7% -13.8% 10% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage162d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,743 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $1,747 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $1,226 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $488 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $488 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $489 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $450 −$6 -1%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 12 $496 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 09 $497 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 71d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $721 94d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $616 100d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $1 100d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $3 100d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 100d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,743 109d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 109d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $11 109d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $14 111d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,236 111d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,745 111d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 111d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 113d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $3 113d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 114d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $14 114d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,238 114d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,747 114d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1 114d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 114d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 129d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $1 129d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $11 129d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 137d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 137d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $8 144d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records