Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x6277…eda7 sports 710 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,068 (+3%) realized +$1,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%357W / 352L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$438est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$24
14 days−$1,170
30 days−$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$719
other 6% −$160
crypto 0% +$45
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +4.4% -5.6% 48% 48% -10.4%
≤30d 245 +3.2% -6.6% 49% 49% -13.2%
≤90d 471 +8.1% -2.2% 51% 50% -7.1%
all 709 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 50% -8.1%
10% -15.7% 50% -16.9%
15% -23.9% 48% -24.9%
20% -31.3% 42% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$49 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses357 / 352
Est. fees paid−$438
Open positions1
Markets (closed)709 / 710
History coverage235d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$45 +60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 +$149 +291%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$25 +50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $51 +$37 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $64 +$82 +129%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $72 +$43 +60%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $26 +$46 +172%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $51 +$58 +114%
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$36 +70%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $26 +$58 +226%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $101 +$66 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$44 +86%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $51 +$84 +165%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $51 +$105 +206%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $34 +$32 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $51 +$58 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $48 +$37 +76%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $35 11m
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $52 29h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $51 29h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $51 29h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 28¢ $26 31h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 50¢ $51 32h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 49¢ $25 33h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 29¢ $26 33h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 36¢ $51 33h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 63¢ $51 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $76 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 66¢ $101 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 25¢ $51 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $51 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 41¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $51 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 57¢ $51 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 37¢ $51 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 54¢ $44 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $101 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 43¢ $64 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 35¢ $51 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 62¢ $72 4d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 36¢ $26 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 34¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 1530 history records