Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6277…5a3f sports 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50,794 (-9%) realized −$47,632 · open −$3,162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%381W / 659L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day81.8pace
Fees−$8,320est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$20,534
other 1% +$3,784
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -51.3% -56.0% 22% 21% -51.5%
≤30d 832 -19.2% -26.9% 36% 35% -21.9%
≤90d 1040 -18.5% -26.3% 37% 35% -22.6%
all 1040 -18.5% -26.3% 37% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 35% -22.6%
10% -33.3% 33% -30.0%
15% ← realistic here -39.8% 31% -36.8%
20% -45.7% 28% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$694) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$620 vs −$494 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$15,299
Realized−$47,632
Unrealized−$3,162
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses381 / 659
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$8,320
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1040 / 900
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$600
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1040 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 63¢ 64¢ $525 $530 +$4 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ 100¢ $142 $289 +$147 (+104%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ 20¢ $308 $123 −$185 (-60%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 38¢ $150 $116 −$34 (-23%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 48¢ $46 $63 +$17 (+38%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $3,114 $3 −$3,111 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: ALGO (-1.5) vs KUUSAMO.gg (+1.5) Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $459 −$459 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 17 $496 −$496 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Gro Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $589 −$589 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Cl Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Z7 Esports (BO1) - Parken Challenger Jun 17 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 17 $474 −$474 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $916 −$916 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $509 −$509 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $328 −$328 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $2,313 −$2,313 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs JiJieHao - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,644 −$1,644 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Map Handicap: Gen.G (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs RAYN Clocks - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BoostGate Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $438 −$438 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $568 −$568 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 17 $942 −$942 -100%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs Akimbo Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 17 $448 −$448 -100%
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,968 −$1,968 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - DreamLeague China Clos Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $781 −$781 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $127 24m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $404 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $12 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $132 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $5 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $204 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $305 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $305 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $406 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $51 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $304 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $152 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $152 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $33 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $152 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $142 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $305 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $142 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $24 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $304 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $6 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $8 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $304 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $13 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $304 6h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $5 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $700 16h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $37 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,299.21 · official $15,315.06 (match) · 3500 history records