trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 40% | 40% | -45.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 40% | 40% | -45.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 40% | 40% | -45.3% |
| all | 23 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 39% | 35% | -51.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.7% | 35% | -51.7% |
| 10% | -40.9% | 30% | -56.3% |
| 15% | -46.6% | 30% | -60.5% |
| 20% | -51.9% | 26% | -64.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $13,440 | $11,949 | −$1,490 (-11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $1,500 | $1,719 | +$219 (+15%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,858 | $1,626 | −$232 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $3,351 | −$3,268 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $4,049 | −$4,000 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2,032 | +$2,315 | +114% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1,019 | +$1,613 | +158% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $1,234 | −$1,220 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Feb 28 | $189 | −$186 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | Feb 28 | $247 | −$247 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET | Feb 28 | $118 | −$118 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Feb 28 | $558 | −$558 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | Feb 28 | $767 | −$766 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Feb 20 | $270 | +$229 | +85% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Feb 19 | $240 | −$240 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | Feb 17 | $230 | +$270 | +117% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Feb 17 | $250 | +$250 | +100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Feb 16 | $215 | +$285 | +133% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | Feb 16 | $165 | −$165 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Feb 13 | $219 | −$216 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | Feb 13 | $297 | +$3 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | Feb 13 | $618 | +$82 | +13% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Jan 27 | $13,998 | −$13,998 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 27 | $10,304 | +$3,981 | +39% |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | Jan 24 | $310 | −$310 | -100% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Jan 12 | $4,890 | −$4,890 | -100% |