Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

62 0x6268…757f world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$16 (+12%) realized +$20 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip

Net edge+84%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+84.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+8.7%	-1.7%	100%	0%	-1.7%
≤30d	1	+8.7%	-1.7%	100%	0%	-1.7%
≤90d	3	+103.4%	+84.0%	100%	33%	+57.4%
all	3	+103.4%	+84.0%	100%	33%	+57.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+84.0%	33%	+57.4%
10%	+66.4%	33%	+42.3%
15%	+50.3%	33%	+28.6%
20%	+35.6%	33%	+16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +103% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage55d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	73¢	70¢	$110	$106	−$4 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Jun 17	$6	$0	+9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24	Apr 25	$5	+$14	+301%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Apr 23	$10	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap	BUY Yes	73¢	$111	59m
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$6	54d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY No	99¢	$10	54d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	54d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.23 · official $116.23 (match) · 6 history records