Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6268…6031 other 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (487 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$4,888 (+100%) realized +$4,886 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%66W / 37L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day487.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% +$110
world 24% +$153
other 9% +$30
tech 2% +$34
sports 1% +$12
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (487 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +26.1% +14.0% 64% 52% +8.5%
≤30d 103 +26.1% +14.0% 64% 52% +8.5%
≤90d 103 +26.1% +14.0% 64% 52% +8.5%
all 103 +26.1% +14.0% 64% 52% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover487.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.0% 52% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here +3.1% 43% -1.9%
15% -6.8% 34% -11.4%
20% -16.0% 27% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.32 per $1 lost it wins $7.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$4,886
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses66 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions50
Markets (closed)103 / 161
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day487.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $23 $27 +$5 (+20%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+121%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 73¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $41 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +70%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +389%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $105 +$22 +21%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $77 +$16 +20%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +232%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 16 $31 +$17 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $34 +$37 +107%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -72%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$11 +62%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$17 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +40%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 15 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 0m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 1¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 7m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18m
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 19m
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21m
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 24m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 34m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.33 · official $248.34 (match) · 3500 history records