Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
62 0x6266…a955 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+12%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$751
sports 11% −$213
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +66.7% +50.8% 62% 62% +33.1%
≤30d 8 +66.7% +50.8% 62% 62% +33.1%
≤90d 8 +66.7% +50.8% 62% 62% +33.1%
all 8 +66.7% +50.8% 62% 62% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.8% 62% +33.1%
10% +36.4% 62% +20.4%
15% +23.2% 62% +8.7%
20% +11.1% 62% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$126 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 35
History coverage4d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$180 +352%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $81 +$124 +153%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $125 +$192 +154%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 +$188 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 10¢ $15 35m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 14¢ $51 37m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 8¢ $26 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $56 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 26¢ $44 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $111 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $57 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 33¢ $71 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 15¢ $30 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 38¢ $53 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 22¢ $51 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $81 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 23¢ $128 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $21 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 27¢ $128 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 31¢ $36 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 13¢ $26 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $15 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 21¢ $46 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $15 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $15 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 31¢ $106 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $101 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $309.26 · 45 history records