Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6264…feb7 crypto 596 markets active 20h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,608 (-52%) realized −$6,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%237W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day110.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$387
sports 1% +$14
other 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -10.0% -18.5% 29% 3% -18.4%
≤30d 658 -4.2% -13.3% 36% 3% -15.0%
≤90d 658 -4.2% -13.3% 36% 3% -15.0%
all 658 -4.2% -13.3% 36% 3% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 3% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 2% -23.2%
15% -29.2% 1% -30.6%
20% -36.1% 1% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses237 / 421
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)658 / 596
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day110.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 658 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records