Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x6262…a2dc other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$17
politics 25% −$9
sports 15% +$17
economics 5% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 114 -3.9% -13.1% 14% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage137d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $324 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $342 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $293 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $317 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $327 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $293 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $334 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $325 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $251 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Apr 02 $272 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $606 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $318 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 2h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $57 16h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $253 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $253 32d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $324 33d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $324 39d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 39d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $314 66d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $314 67d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 67d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 67d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $257 67d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $257 67d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 68d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 68d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $293 68d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $293 68d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 68d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 68d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $264 68d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $264 68d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $223 69d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $223 69d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $289 69d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 70d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $281 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.96 · official $136.96 (match) · 325 history records