Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6261…2e11 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,914 (-5%) realized +$176 · open −$3,090
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate62%50W / 31L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$25,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,527
7 days−$228
14 days−$117
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3,199
other 35% −$1,618
finance 15% +$469
sports 7% +$1,085
tech 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.3% -5.6% 78% 33% -10.2%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 15% -9.9%
≤90d 81 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 15% -10.0%
all 81 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 15% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 15% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 7% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$109 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$25,067
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$3,090
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses50 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions16
Markets (closed)81 / 97
History coverage38d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 86¢ $5,869 $5,107 −$762 (-13%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 72¢ $4,765 $3,828 −$937 (-20%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? No 96¢ 90¢ $4,010 $3,757 −$253 (-6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 79¢ 68¢ $4,166 $3,557 −$609 (-15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 84¢ $2,834 $2,566 −$268 (-9%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 79¢ 70¢ $2,633 $2,314 −$319 (-12%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,775 $1,770 −$6 (-0%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,129 $1,179 +$50 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $662 $679 +$17 (+3%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $233 $234 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 87¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? No 90¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 38¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4,416 +$1,083 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,021 +$1,444 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $3,094 +$81 +3%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,029 −$1,859 -37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $2,974 +$182 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $4,082 −$1,424 -35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6,005 +$264 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,681 +$114 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 30 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? May 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -29%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 26 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? May 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $7 +$3 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $5 +$1 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $5 −$2 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 39m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $219 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1,556 1h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $466 4h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $225 4h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $938 4h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 6h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2,810 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,606 19h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 92¢ $233 20h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 23h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 25h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 26h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $149 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,021 44h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 96¢ $5 47h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $972 2d
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $532 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $9 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $66 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $28 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $28 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $270 2d
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $174 2d
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,066.69 · official $25,067.02 (match) · 273 history records