Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x6261…4adb sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,203 (+25%) realized +$17,387 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$5,623per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$631est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22,127
7 days+$18,927
14 days+$18,927
30 days+$16,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$16,976
other 20% +$3,368
crypto 6% −$4,095
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.5% -38.1% 43% 43% +25.2%
≤30d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 44% +17.5%
≤90d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 44% +17.5%
all 9 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 44% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 44% +17.5%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 44% +6.3%
15% -43.8% 33% -4.0%
20% -49.3% 22% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6,482 vs −$1,899 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$11,870
Realized+$17,387
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$631
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5,623
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 58¢ $10,000 $9,915 −$85 (-1%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Team Falcons 38¢ 38¢ $1,500 $1,487 −$13 (-1%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Team Falcons 16¢ 14¢ $554 $468 −$87 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $11,268 +$12,174 +108%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $13,541 +$3,568 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,049 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $19,172 +$8,585 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $3,049 −$3,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,523 +$1,602 +105%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4,257 −$4,095 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $60 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $201 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $216 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $76 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $1,528 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $10,123 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $1,019 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $1,527 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5,059 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4,979 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 7h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 8h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 8h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $305 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $3,357 8h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $3,140 8h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $79 9h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,800 9h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 9h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,125 9h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 9h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5,849 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $2,049 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,870.26 · official $11,870.26 (match) · 51 history records