Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x625b…3a3e other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$53
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$52
politics 36% −$24
world 9% +$20
culture 3% +$15
economics 2% +$4
sports 2% +$3
tech 1% −$20
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +187.7% +160.3% 100% 100% +160.3%
≤30d 11 +11.3% +0.7% 45% 36% -7.8%
≤90d 23 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 35% -4.8%
all 37 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 32% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 32% -5.9%
10% -25.5% 24% -14.9%
15% -32.7% 16% -23.1%
20% -39.3% 11% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage123d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $44 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 30¢ 52¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $31 +$59 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $112 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$16 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $142 −$52 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $91 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $52 +$26 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 05 $47 +$8 +17%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 Apr 28 $54 +$13 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $49 +$10 +20%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 21 $125 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 20 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Mar 09 $11 −$5 -49%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -66%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Feb 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $6 38m
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $61 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $25 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 8d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 73¢ $71 13d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 81¢ $81 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 14d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 79¢ $32 14d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 76¢ $31 15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 16d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $30 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 28d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 28d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $65 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $66 29d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.33 · official $117.33 (match) · 105 history records