Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x6258…b225 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$119
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$37
other 36% +$70
crypto 9% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +88.3% +70.3% 44% 44% +26.8%
≤30d 17 +77.2% +60.3% 41% 41% +8.5%
≤90d 38 +28.4% +16.2% 47% 42% -13.6%
all 38 +28.4% +16.2% 47% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.2% 42% -13.6%
10% +5.1% 39% -21.9%
15% -5.1% 39% -29.4%
20% -14.4% 32% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage70d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$40 +1290%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $20 −$20 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 21 $36 +$14 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $15 +$19 +129%
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5 Apr 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $15 +$10 +67%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 +$1 +8%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Apr 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 09 $6 −$1 -19%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $7 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 14h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $51 8d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $20 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 40¢ $9 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 40¢ $1 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 40¢ $2 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 60¢ $18 56d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 66¢ $35 57d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 57d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 60¢ $36 64d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Nuggets 43¢ $15 66d
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.01 · official $149.01 (match) · 73 history records