Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
62 0x6257…01bf crypto 1169 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-3%) realized −$165 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%625W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$2
14 days−$37
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$271
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 +6.6% -3.5% 53% 53% -9.4%
≤30d 1054 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 52% -13.5%
≤90d 1151 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -13.5%
all 1168 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 53% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 53% -13.4%
10% -19.2% 52% -21.7%
15% -27.0% 33% -29.2%
20% -34.2% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses625 / 543
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1168 / 1169
History coverage108d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 75¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 71¢ 28¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 2707 history records