Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6255…2718 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$480 (-8%) realized −$478 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$30
14 days−$112
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$303
other 34% −$129
weather 12% −$82
politics 2% +$3
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -47.8% -52.8% 24% 14% -16.8%
≤30d 36 -31.5% -38.0% 42% 8% -16.9%
≤90d 36 -31.5% -38.0% 42% 8% -16.9%
all 36 -31.5% -38.0% 42% 8% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 8% -16.9%
10% -44.0% 3% -24.9%
15% -49.4% 0% -32.1%
20% -54.3% 0% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage29d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +27%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 −$4 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$6 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $34 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $65 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $163 −$35 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,336 −$209 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,771 −$101 -6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,026 −$87 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $4 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 23h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 50¢ $5 25h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $5 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $25 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $45 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 47h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $33 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $25 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.81 · official $46.81 (match) · 83 history records