Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6255…a29b sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized +$8 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%66W / 38L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days−$142
14 days−$133
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$382
other 25% −$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 35% -13.1%
≤30d 90 +29.5% +17.1% 66% 30% -9.9%
≤90d 104 +23.8% +12.0% 63% 30% -10.6%
all 104 +23.8% +12.0% 63% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 30% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 21% -19.1%
15% -8.5% 17% -27.0%
20% -17.5% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$43 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses66 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage33d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under $50 $2 −$48 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $294 +$41 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 +$241 +160%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $68 +$120 +176%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$94 +106%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 +$38 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $65 −$65 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $218 −$72 -33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $70 +$98 +141%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $363 −$31 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $120 +$8 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $200 +$12 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $353 −$264 -75%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $208 +$38 +18%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $589 −$163 -28%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $588 −$95 -16%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$12 +12%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $809 −$37 -4%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $115 +$105 +91%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $79 +$79 +100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $294 +$29 +10%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,879 −$15 -1%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $108 +$13 +12%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $117 +$29 +25%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $869 +$19 +2%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $24 +$6 +26%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $50 +$3 +6%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $571 −$100 -18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $642 −$103 -16%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $68 +$1 +2%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $560 +$10 +2%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $199 +$6 +3%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $27 +$1 +4%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $100 +$9 +9%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $98 +$1 +1%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 30 $88 −$2 -3%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $202 −$10 -5%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $190 +$30 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $215 +$6 +3%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 1.5 May 29 $37 −$10 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $35 43m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $15 43m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $21 43m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 48m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 48m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $235 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $96 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $12 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $88 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $98 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $16 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $50 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $27 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $362 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $100 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $24 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $23 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 800 history records