Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6254…1e8c weather 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$12 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -5.4%
≤90d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -5.4%
all 3 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 0% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 0% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -14.4%
15% -24.4% 0% -22.7%
20% -31.8% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×42.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×84.68 per $1 lost it wins $84.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)3 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? No 71¢ 67¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 77¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? No 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? No 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 22? No 88¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 92¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? No 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Yes 21¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $99 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 92¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 42¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 76¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 75¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 88¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $5 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $39 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $39 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $107 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $99 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.60 · official $91.35 (match) · 28 history records