Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6252…da1d other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-13%) realized −$247 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$225
other 44% +$46
crypto 4% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.7% -24.6% 11% 11% -20.6%
≤30d 27 -16.7% -24.6% 11% 11% -20.6%
≤90d 59 -8.7% -17.4% 27% 24% -22.0%
all 59 -8.7% -17.4% 27% 24% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 24% -22.0%
10% -25.3% 24% -29.5%
15% -32.5% 24% -36.3%
20% -39.1% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$25 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 43
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)59 / 69
History coverage82d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 +$60 +786%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 −$15 -49%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $31 +$169 +550%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$32 +614%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $61 −$61 -100%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 18 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Apr 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 18 $55 +$45 +82%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $24 +$76 +317%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $40 +$60 +150%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 18 $42 +$58 +138%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $40 +$60 +150%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 18 $40 +$60 +150%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $67 +$33 +49%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 17 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 17 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $93 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 48m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 49m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 49m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 18h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 19h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 30h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 30h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 30h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 30h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 30h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.77 · official $23.77 (match) · 135 history records