Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x624c…f7e9 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$7
other 9% −$2
politics 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
sports 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 12% -10.7%
≤30d 20 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 25 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 4% -9.8%
all 31 -4.1% -13.3% 45% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -10.1%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 3% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage533d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $70 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $67 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $105 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $64 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $356 −$3 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $115 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $276 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $15 $0 -3%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the match between Ferencvaros and Viktoria Plzen end in a draw? Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $13 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $16 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $29 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $30 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $24 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $6 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $32 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $26 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records