Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

62 0x624c…0ce2 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$96 (-24%) realized −$96 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-55.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.9%	-10.3%	0%	0%	-10.3%
≤30d	2	-50.4%	-55.2%	0%	0%	-55.0%
≤90d	2	-50.4%	-55.2%	0%	0%	-55.0%
all	2	-50.4%	-55.2%	0%	0%	-55.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-55.2%	0%	-55.0%
10%	-59.5%	0%	-59.3%
15%	-63.4%	0%	-63.2%
20%	-67.0%	0%	-66.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$50 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage

Net worth$195

Realized−$96

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage38d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	77¢	78¢	$98	$101	+$3 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$97	$94	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	Jun 29	$100	−$1	-1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$100	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$99	1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	SELL Yes	94¢	$99	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	79¢	$100	14d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	BUY Yes	77¢	$99	37d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	37d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.67 · official $194.67 (match) · 5 history records