Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
62 0x6249…703a other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+8%) realized +$66 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$17
crypto 11% +$32
sports 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 83% +24.4%
≤30d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 83% +24.4%
≤90d 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 83% +24.4%
all 6 +25.0% +13.1% 83% 83% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 83% +24.4%
10% +2.2% 67% +12.5%
15% -7.6% 50% +1.6%
20% -16.7% 33% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×7.1 per $1 lost it wins $7.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 +$18 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $69 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $37 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 42h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.13 · official $450.13 (match) · 22 history records