Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6243…8ea0 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-9%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$67
14 days−$70
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$8
world 28% $0
sports 24% −$62
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -31.6% -38.1% 41% 18% -20.3%
≤30d 36 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 14% -18.5%
≤90d 49 -17.4% -25.3% 51% 14% -16.9%
all 49 -17.4% -25.3% 51% 14% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 14% -16.9%
10% -32.4% 4% -24.8%
15% -39.0% 2% -32.1%
20% -44.9% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage72d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 −$7 -10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $92 +$23 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 +$8 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$14 -35%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$4 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$6 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $45 +$2 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 30 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? May 29 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 −$5 -16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $4 +$1 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $3 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? May 21 $3 $0 -1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $3 $0 +9%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 16 $17 −$5 -31%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $15 +$3 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $10 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $22 +$8 +37%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $55 56m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $55 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $60 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $39 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 84¢ $27 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $19 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records