Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6243…e014
weather · 524 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$890 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$317 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$333
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses120 / 390
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions27
Markets (closed)510 / 524
History coverage28d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day111.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 27 History 510 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$16
14 days−$118
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 88¢ $274 $274 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? No 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? No 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$24 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$6 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$23 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$11 +548%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $267 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $126 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$13 +570%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 85% +$306
sports 13% +$10
other 2% +$1
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 10¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 3¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 17¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 17¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 23¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 21¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $89 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 13¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -34.4% -40.7% 19% 15% -9.0%
≤30d 510 +2.4% -7.4% 24% 18% -6.8%
≤90d 510 +2.4% -7.4% 24% 18% -6.8%
all 510 +2.4% -7.4% 24% 18% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover111.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 18% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 16% -15.7%
15% -24.3% 15% -23.9%
20% -31.8% 13% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.89 · official $332.89 (match) · 3500 history records