Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x6242…4410 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-13%) realized −$129 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$26
crypto 10% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.8% -43.7% 44% 33% -15.6%
≤30d 9 -37.8% -43.7% 44% 33% -15.6%
≤90d 9 -37.8% -43.7% 44% 33% -15.6%
all 9 -37.8% -43.7% 44% 33% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 33% -15.6%
10% -49.1% 22% -23.6%
15% -54.0% 22% -31.0%
20% -58.5% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$69 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $161 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $456 +$278 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $165 36m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $734 50m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.65 · official $158.71 (match) · 29 history records