Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6242…841b other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,174 (-23%) realized −$2,442 · open +$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,331
7 days−$963
14 days−$963
30 days−$963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$920
sports 7% +$251
crypto 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 24% -19.6%
≤30d 45 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 24% -19.6%
≤90d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 24% -19.6%
all 46 -18.5% -26.3% 33% 24% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 24% -19.6%
10% -33.3% 15% -27.3%
15% -39.8% 11% -34.3%
20% -45.7% 11% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -63% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$102 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized−$2,442
Unrealized+$268
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)46 / 57
History coverage31d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? No 79¢ 100¢ $316 $400 +$84 (+27%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Yes 12¢ 92¢ $51 $398 +$347 (+680%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $4 $93 +$89 (+2472%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 92¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+216%)
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-99%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$51 +262%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $49 +$637 +1290%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $33 +$3 +8%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $529 +$371 +70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,627 +$172 +10%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +73%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $14 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $335 +$111 +33%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 +$5 +18%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $99 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $133 −$129 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $46 −$44 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $221 −$216 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,225 −$1,213 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,303 +$382 +29%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,054 −$1,039 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $235 −$79 -34%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $100 +$285 +284%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $233 −$123 -53%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $820 +$131 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 33m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 38m
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 57m
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $86 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY No 79¢ $318 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $33 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $1,518 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $529 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $109 2h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $903.53 · official $847.29 · 174 history records