Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6240…3727 crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,018 (-13%) realized −$3,018 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%56W / 119L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$233
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$331
finance 4% −$882
other 3% −$407
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$86
sports 0% +$103
weather 0% −$8
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 26% -12.2%
≤30d 31 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 26% -12.2%
≤90d 68 -13.5% -21.7% 28% 26% -52.9%
all 175 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 31% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 31% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -24.0%
15% -30.4% 30% -31.3%
20% -37.3% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$110 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,018
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses56 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET Jun 27 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$62 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$39 +371%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$189 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$62 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$55 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$73 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$129 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$102 +280%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 400k and 500k? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12PM ET Apr 01 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 31 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11AM ET Mar 31 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$31 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 31 $40 +$49 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10AM ET Mar 31 $80 +$181 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 31 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 31 $52 +$116 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 31 $52 +$127 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 31 $27 +$57 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $17 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $24 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records