Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x623b…b1f8 crypto 545 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,153 (+14%) realized +$4,229 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%209W / 529L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$3,223
other 32% +$215
sports 11% +$212
world 8% −$173
finance 1% +$32
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 -58.4% -62.4% 17% 16% -31.0%
≤30d 686 -36.0% -42.1% 27% 26% -13.7%
≤90d 738 -30.9% -37.5% 28% 28% -8.6%
all 738 -30.9% -37.5% 28% 28% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.5% 28% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 27% -17.3%
15% -48.9% 25% -25.3%
20% -53.9% 24% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$24 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$5,015
Realized+$4,229
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses209 / 529
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions55
Markets (closed)738 / 545
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $1,740 $1,798 +$58 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $1,130 $1,155 +$25 (+2%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,174 $901 −$273 (-23%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $139 $164 +$25 (+18%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $140 $153 +$13 (+9%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $160 $152 −$8 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Down 36¢ 92¢ $36 $92 +$56 (+157%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 61¢ 92¢ $61 $92 +$31 (+51%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $81 $88 +$8 (+9%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $72 $84 +$12 (+17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-2%)
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Will Désiré Doué win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 5PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 6PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,221 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 1h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,014.81 · official $5,019.02 (match) · 3500 history records