Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x623b…5c90 world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-50%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 190d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$39
other 26% −$2
tech 5% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.1% -18.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 4 -10.1% -18.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 6 -40.0% -45.8% 0% 0% -71.5%
all 6 -40.0% -45.8% 0% 0% -71.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 0% -71.5%
10% -50.9% 0% -74.2%
15% -55.7% 0% -76.7%
20% -60.0% 0% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage190d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 44¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $3 19m
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 20m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 45m
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 48m
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 44¢ $2 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $4 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 18¢ $34 69d
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.56 · official $18.56 (match) · 27 history records