Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x623a…5e86 crypto 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$170 (+1%) realized −$803 · open +$973
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%143W / 95L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$142
14 days+$115
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$261
world 16% +$238
crypto 8% −$167
politics 7% −$304
sports 2% −$181
economics 2% −$29
tech 1% −$53
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.3% +7.0% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 9 -38.5% -44.3% 44% 33% -5.2%
≤90d 48 -76.1% -78.4% 15% 6% -21.5%
all 238 -7.9% -16.6% 60% 46% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -16.6%
10% -24.6% 31% -24.6%
15% -31.9% 20% -31.9%
20% -38.6% 15% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$37 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$9,523
Realized−$803
Unrealized+$973
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses143 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)238 / 243
History coverage611d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $8,151 $9,124 +$973 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 48¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 83¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,033 +$117 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $100 +$25 +25%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $1,000 +$75 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $999 +$111 +11%
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? May 17 $69 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027? Apr 21 $201 −$18 -9%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Apr 21 $211 −$4 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 19 $1,001 +$10 +1%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Apr 19 $602 +$20 +3%
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Apr 19 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 7AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alex Noren win the 2025 DPW Tour Omega European Masters? Apr 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Macron out by October 31, 2025? Apr 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? Apr 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 6AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 11AM ET Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 10AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 5AM ET Apr 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10AM ET Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2025 DPW Tour Omega European Masters? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 9AM ET Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 US Open? Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Apr 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 10AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 US Open? Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 7AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 11AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 6AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? Apr 15 $70 −$70 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 9AM ET Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3AM ET Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 11AM ET Apr 15 $99 −$99 -100%
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Macron out in 2025? Nov 25 $2,657 −$945 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 5AM ET Sep 29 $12 +$19 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $102 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $101 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $99 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1,000 14d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 57¢ $40 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 57¢ $16 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 57¢ $5 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $1 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $6 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $8 15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,522.52 · official $9,522.52 (match) · 855 history records