Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6239…3455 crypto 606 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+2%) realized +$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate88%535W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$299
14 days+$268
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$269
sports 3% −$75
politics 1% +$2
other 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 +4.7% -5.3% 92% 32% -6.3%
≤30d 606 +1.6% -8.1% 88% 34% -8.2%
≤90d 606 +1.6% -8.1% 88% 34% -8.2%
all 606 +1.6% -8.1% 88% 34% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 34% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 18% -17.0%
15% -24.9% 7% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses535 / 71
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)606 / 606
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 606 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$19 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$63 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $22 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $29 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1441 history records